Recession: Supply and Demand: Undocumented Immigrants

There are many problems which require deliberate human intervention, and they are legion. Some problems, however, are mitigated simply as a result of the normal ebb and flow of human and natural events. The example that comes most immediately to mind is the problem of a high incidence of crime. The existence of a criminal justice system is the usual man made institution to keep crime under control. But the alternative is much more effective. Demographics regarding the proportion of young people (teens and twenty-somethings) is the most effective predictor of crime in any given population grouping. The smaller that proportion is, the less crime. Demographics just happen, they are not deliberately introduced. If they are working your way they are worth their weight in gold. But whether they are or not is not ordinarily under your control (with the exception being China ).

A comprehensive immigration reform bill, if one were to be approved would be another example of governmental intervention designed to gain control over the problem of illegal immigration into the US. We are not close to being there yet.

The economic business cycle also operates with an ebb and flow sequence. The economy alternates between expansion and contraction. In expansionary periods opportunities abound. During contractions most things slow down, particularly new hiring of workers. In addition, those already working and possessing the least influence are the first to be fired.

Contractions, when they last long enough lead to Recessions. We are currently in a contraction conceivably on our way to a Recession and it may well turn out to be a long deep Recession.

Undocumented workers have been and will continue to be the most vulnerable victims of the recessionary forces. They have been most heavily represented in the industries which have suffered the brunt of the contraction: construction and hospitality. Jobs will continue to diminish as the "demand" for those services and product shrink.

When Demand evaporates "opportunities" are extinguished. Undocumented workers are here because of the opportunities that existed previously but are no longer. Those without jobs will find the cost of simply living in the US beyond their means and will begin an exodus back to their country of origin.

This temporary reprieve will provide our legislators with a situation that is less overwhelming. New more effective systems can be designed and implemented to put in place before the next tidal inundation when we have moved into the next expansionary part of the business cycle.